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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.